Friday, February 29, 2008

Texas And Ohio Debates Have Apparently Not Slowed Clinton Slippage

Fresh polls from Rasmussen and other polling organizations continue to suggest that the Texas and Ohio debates have failed to prevent further poll slippage by Clinton to Obama who now is seen as leading in Texas and close to Clinton in fresh Ohio polls. None of this is good news to Clinton who really needs big wins this Tuesday in Ohio or Texas to be seen as a viable candidate. And although she was able to raise a surprisingly healthy amount of campaign cash last month in excess of $30 million dollars, Clinton's campaign could be all be over if she should lose in both Texas and Ohio.

As things stand today, Clinton is only highly likely to win in tiny Rhode Island on Tuesday, lose in small Vermont, as well in the critical Texas primary, and the Ohio contest is nearly a toss-up with only a small 5 point advantage over Obama that could well disappear by Tueday if the current trend towards Obama continues. In the upcoming Pennsylvania Primary, Clinton is only ahead by a mere four points, which is a tiny and nervous lead considering the momentum of Obama. The campaign for the Democratic nomination could nearly be over this Tuesday if Clinton only manages a win in tiny Rhode Island.

Rudolph Giuliani watched his campaign for president end with the complete failure of his "firewall" in Florida. While Clinton is a better condition than this, still her campaign is falling behind Obama as more and more endorsements come his way and the Republican Party nominee John McCain has already targeted Obama as his November opponent.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Even Worst Than Ralph Nader

At one time, Ralph Nader held an important position as a senior apostle of the left who was seen as the conscience of the nation on many issues because many of his observations and complaints about the system were so correct. Then with one endless defeat after another in one perpetual losing race for president after another, Nader slowly began to wear away his role as a sort of senior statesman for the left and was increasingly seen as little more than some egotistical political cult leader.

And as bad as the slow decline of Ralph Nader has become, there is yet a even worse perpetual candidate, who seems to make far less sense, yet still has an appeal to a small political cult of followers. Former college dropout, turned Marxist, turned unusual political philosopher, Lyndon LaRouche still attacts a tiny core of followers and continues to write elaborate strange conspiracy tales despite a former stint in a federal prison and other personal setbacks. At one time, LaRouche headed a leftist political party, the U.S. Labor Party, but has since run for office within the Democratic Party as what has to the strangest and most unconventional of platforms compared to the broad mainstream of most Democrats.

It's not only the endless runs for political office, but also the highly unconventional views of LaRouche which have run the gamut from one-time Trotskyite Socialism all the way to a form of pseudoconservatism and elaborate conspiracy theory construction that have seemed to characterize LaRouche as very far from his claimed "Franklin Delano Roosevelt" form of Democratic Party mainstreamism. In so many ways, the logic of LaRouche's writings often seem like "synthetic", not real political thought because the logical connection between the points often seems so distant to many like me at times.

It is hard to believe that LaRouche once left college due to poor grades because on the surface he seems like such a prolific writer. Yet the real value of much of his works seems really lost to many readers as it often weaves strange conspiracy tales involving world banking, the Queen of England, and other matters not typical in most mainstream political discussions.

The other day I noticed a supporter of LaRouche with a display of his books outside the post office. I guess LaRouche is probably gearing up for yet another run for office as a vehicle for his unconventional conspiracy tales. Ralph Nader isn't the only candidate who endlessly runs for office and still has some political groupies who cling to his views it seems.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Math Looks Tougher And Tougher For A Hillary Comeback

If Hillary Clinton intends for any political comeback, then she'll be facing longer and longer odds. Right now she must win every remaining state between now and the Oregon primary in late May by a 55-45% popular vote margin if she intends to have enough delegates to win the nomination straight out. That sounds nearly impossible as she is likely to have two fresh losses in Hawaii and Wisconsin to Obama, making it 10 wins in row, and raising her needed popular vote wins to a staggering 57%-43% margin in all remaining states. If she losses one more contest among any of the remaining states, then she will need to garner over 60% of the vote in all remaining states.

The hard fact is that Clinton has had few 55% wins so far before the huge Omama bandwagon of momentum really started to steamroll over her campaign in 8 straight states. Only in Arkansas did she capture a huge 70% of the vote. In Michigan she captured 55%. In Florida it was merely 50%. And in her New York it was 57%. But in most other states her share of the vote was less than 55%, including Tennessee at 54%, Massachusetts 56%, New Jersey 54%, Oklahoma 55%, California 52% and Arizona 51%. However since the latest string of eight straight wins by Obama, Clinton has managed no better than a mere 37% of the vote as her latest high-water mark. And her campaign is reeling from dwindling new cash donations and management changes which are only further serious signs of trouble.

A new poll published in Rasmussen does Clinton the lead in Ohio, but how long that lasts as the Obama tidalwave washes away her hopes is a good question? Rasmussen also found Obama leading her nationally by five points for the first time ever yesterday. Likely this margin is only likely to grow in the coming days as Obama is able to close the door on the Clinton campaign.

While the Obama lead in pledged delegates is still small at this point, it is important to look at all the factors involved in his new wave of strength and see that Obama has made inroads into every demographic that supported Clinton in previous primary events. It was only her strengh among those in the Hispanic community that really glued together her wins in some big states like California. As Obama trims her support even among Hispanics, her ability to win even Texas looks a little less hopeful than only days ago.

It certainly looks more and more difficult for Clinton to recapture her footing in the race. Part of her problem came from constantly changing her message starting from a Michael Dukakislike one of her claimed inevitability of winning the Democratic nomination, to a desperate me-too attempt of adopting the "change" message after she only seemed to promise an old guard return to a 1990's Clinton Administration type rule once again with her "experience" message. Obama by contrast stayed with his "change" message, and awed large crowds with a hopeful and forward looking message, where it was certainly far more inspirational than the Clinton message of wanting to basicly restore the old 1990's Clinton rule with her replacing her husband as president this time around. That hardly failed to unite supporters anywhere near as well as the hopeful Obama message or lure supporters.

Clinton certainly managed to allow a stronger candidate such as Obama with a more powerful and more inspirational message a clear opening to exploit and more likely capture the Democratic nomination. Likely Clinton will have many years to think about what went wrong and ruined her best shot at ever winning the White House.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Is Hillary's Campaign In Major League Trouble?

Over the weekend, Clinton managed to lose no less than five contests to Barack Obama in Washington, Virgin Islands, Louisiana, Nebraska and Maine. Today polls seem to indicate Clinton could stand to lose three more contests in Virginia, Maryland and the District Of Columbia. If this string of eight losses in a row materializes and Obama continues to build momentum how can the Clinton campaign not be concerned? Certainly this trend doesn't look good or heading in a positive direction.

But Clinton is not yet out for sure. Certainly her campaign is reeling with the string of losses, has money problems and has responded with changed campaign managers, yet can still manage a political comeback using primary contests in states like Wisconsin or Texas to make a stand and create a sort of last ditch, Obama-stopping firewall attempt. Will it work? Who knows at this point. But certainly Obama is the candidate building the big MO at this moment and even draws overall higher public approval numbers than either Clinton or McCain. In a general election, Obama is the only candidate who draws more than 50% public approval numbers right now at 52%. Clinton only garners 48% and McCain 47%. Obama may just be unstoppable.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Latest Delegate Count

The latest delegate count shows Hillary Clinton with a very slight lead in the Democratic race only because of the role of the superdelegates and John McCain closing in victory in the GOP race despite some late efforts by religious conservative, Mike Huckabee:

Democrats: Clinton total 1,148(Pledged 924, Superdelegates 224), Obama total 1,121(Pledged 986, Superdelegates 135), Edwards total 26(Pledged 26, Superdelegates 0), Others 0 - 2,025 needed to win

Republicans: McCain total 723(Pledged 697, Unpledged RNC 26), Romney total 286 pledged delegates, Huckabee total 217(Pledged 214, Unpledged RNC 3), Paul total 16 pledged delegates, Others 0 - 1,191 needed to nominate

Huckabbee Cries Foul At Washington State Vote Count

GOP candidate Mike Huckabee is crying foul at the way the vote was counted by the Republican Party officials in the Washington state Republican caucus. Party officials who likely are favorable to John McCain simply stopped counting the votes and declared John McCain the winner before all of the votes were counted according to Huckabee's complaint's.

When the votes were close with McCain at a little over 25% and Huckabee close at 23%, Republican Party officials decided to stop counting votes, preventing Huckabee from overtaking McCain in the vote count according to the concerns of Huckabee. Huckabee feels that he may have been denied a victory in the state because of this. Indeed it seems strange for a party sponsored caucus to simply stop counting the votes while one candidate has a slight lead and this may become a major scandal unless Republican Party officials can offer some reasonable explanation or remedy.

Monday, February 04, 2008

Ralph Nader Is Sure Sounding Like A Candidate For 2008

Ralph Nader just had to cast some shadow over Super Tuesday, and has sent out a new mass Email today which refers to Clinton and Obama as "corporate welfare kings". Nader further attacks Clinton for her service as a young lawyer to the "union-busting Wal-Mart" and Obama for keeping the nuclear option on the table in the event of a national security crisis.

Nader further seems to answer his own question about "who will challenge the corporate welfare kings?" by using the new website name,, which has to be just about as subtle as mallet.

Apparently Ralph Nader has yet to be convinced at the harm that was done to the country when he split the vote in 2000 and no doubt cost Al Gore the election with the narrow loss in Florida.

Ralph Nader is sure not going to elected in 2008. But if the race becomes very tight, he could once again prove to be a spoiler again. Rather than compromise some of his ideals for the sake of keeping regressives from taking the White House again, Nader shouldn't let his opinions or ego once again get in the way of some political compromise for the sake of the country. But the smart money is that Nader will run again. All the signs are sure there.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Rasmussen Reports Begins Daily Clinton-McCain 2008 Race Tracking Poll

Rasmussen Reports now seems so sure of Clinton-McCain matchup in November that they are beginning a daily tracking poll despite a close national tracking of Obama with Clinton and a dead even McCain-Romney Republican race.

Rasmussen appears to be weighing the likely strengths of Clinton and McCain in enough key Super Tuesday states to view these two as nearly unstoppable despite last ditch efforts by both Obama and Romney to wrest their party nominations.

Conservative talk radio personalities such as Rush Limbaugh hope to give romney some last ditch support and still continue to mischaraterize John McCain as a "liberal" despite him having the second most conservative voting record among U.S. senators in the 109th Congress. McCain's extent of bipartisan is hardly any greater than most in the senate, and his support for campaign financing reform was only in response to his major role as a leading figure in the "Keating Five" Lincoln Savings & Loan collapse scandal of the 1980's and his anger at George Bush's South Carolina primary win in 2000 that set back McCain's presidential ambitions by eight years. This is hardly any real sign of any "liberalism" of any type. If anything, McCain is even to the right than former Senator Barry Goldwater on many issues such as civil rights for Gays.

Friday, February 01, 2008

Latest Delegate Count

Here's the latest estimated delegate count before Super Tuesday's big event:

Democrats: Clinton 232, Obama 158, Edwards 62, Others 0 - Needed to nominate 2,025

Republicans: McCain 97, Romney 74, Huckabee 29, Paul 6, Giuliani 2, Others 0 - Needed to nominate 1,191

Super Tuesday could nearly put McCain over the top, but the Obama-Clinton race likely continues for a few more weeks.

Romney Will Dip Into His Deep Pockets For A Last Ditch Attack Ad Campaign For Super Tuesday

Mitt Romney is going to dip into his deep financial pockets to fund a last ditch huge nationwide attack ad casmpaign in last hopes to stop John McCain on Super Tuesday. Romney's campaign is reeling after the loss in Florida and his last hopes of avoiding a Super Tueday knockout from McCain come from stopping him in as many states as possible.

Unlike the Democrats, where all races are proportional in delegates, some Republican contests such as Florida are winner-take-all events.

The campaign for Romney could well be over after Super Tuesday if McCain blows him out in one state after another. Whether this 11th hour effort really works remains to be seen, but likely is too late to do any real good or prevent McCain from grabbing the nomination.

Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans seem to choose their leaders more similiar to the old Soviet Polibureau system, where elderly leaders wait for turn to head the party long after their best days have passed. Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole and now John McCain seem to best represent this.