Monday, October 27, 2008

Karl Rove's Website Has Obama Leading Electoral Vote By 306 To 157

Republican political strategist Karl Rove may be as close to a political insider with the very best polling date and internal campaign polls of nearly any political observer there is. Rove's latest data from his website has Obama leading in the electoral college by 306-157 over John McCain with several states with 75 electoral votes listed in the tossup category.

In the tossup category are states such as Indiana with 11 electoral votes where Rove has Obama with a narrow 2 point lead. Florida's 27 votes are also listed in the tossup category, with Obama leading by 2 points. Nevada's 5 electoral votes are listed as a tossup as well, with Obama leading by 3 points. And North Carolina's 15 electoral votes are considered a tossup with another narrow 2 point Obama lead. And both Missouri with 11 electoral votes and North Dakota with three electoral votes are considered tossup states with a point Obama lead. The only tossup state leans towards John McCain is Montana with just 3 electoral votes and McCain with a tiny 3 point advantage according to Karl Rove's website.

The fact of the matter is that John McCain may well be on the verge of a huge electoral vote loss even if the actual popular vote only by just a few percentage points. And there has been some remarkable stability among some polls such as Rasmussen where Obama has ranged between four to eight points for 32 straight days, and the McCain Campaign has failed to change the dynamics of this race or find a single issue that has really worked for them. In fact, Rasmussen even finds that the Bill Ayers issue has hurt the McCain Campaign far more than Obama.

Time is quickly running out for the McCain Campaign. They have run a very poor campaign, failed to find any good central issues to lure most voters, and have been swimming uphill in a political landscape contaminated by anger against an unpopular George Bush as well a public concern for all of the bad economic news.

However, some polling done by the Zogby organization suggests things are trending towards John McCain with a new poll putting the election within just five points, which seems to be similar to the latest Rasmussen results. So it may be up to the Obama Campaign to both get out the vote as well as to close the deal with their paid 30 minute address program this week. So while things certainly look bad for the McCain Campaign, there are enough concerns for the Obama Campaign to yet consider.

The fact of the matter is that this thing isn't over until all the votes are counted.


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