Sunday, September 02, 2007

Clinton Leads Giuliani By 25 Points In New York State Poll

The choice of New York voters among the two most likely party nominees is Hillary Clinton over Rudolph Giuliani by a wide 25 point margin. The huge lead was noted in a new Rasmussen poll that shows support for Senator Clinton at a landslide 58 to 33% margin.

The good news in this is that once voters get to know Clinton, her negative rating falls and voters feel better about her. But the news seems to run just the oppposite for Giuliani, who appears to wear less well when voters know more about him. In national polls, Giuliani holds a narrow lead over Clinton by about 3 points. And the high negative rating by many voters towards Clinton seems a drag on her support currently. However, the New York results seem to indicate that Clinton might well be able to reverse this problem.

The heavy odds so far seem to indicate a highly likely Giuliani-Clinton race in 2008, with the main work for Clinton established to improve her image with voters and make herself marketable enough to win. However last week's small scandal involving a fugitive donor to the Clinton campaign only reminded some voters of the type of problems that plagued her husband while in office. Clinton may be able to weather this single event, however if any drip-drip of new donor scandals develops, then Clinton could well become damaged. However, so far neither Obama or Edwards have convinced most Democratic voters that they represent a viable alternative should Clinton falter.

In the general election campaign, Clinton will likely face a tough "Swift Boats_ type campaign that will attempt to derail her. She certainly has the toughness to beat back on such attacks. However, if too many new scandals involving donors develop, then the Clinton campaign could certainly falter. And Giuliani is hardly without his shortcomings as well, leaving him wide open to similiar character attacks on his personal life or his leadership and priorities as mayor, including his strongarm tactics as mayor. Both candidates have the real possibility to be rerailed by their own problems with character and the voters problems with both of them. But in the end, Clinton likely still wins. But her administration will likely be under some scrutiny, something like Richard Nixon was. You knew that he was smart enough and competant enough to do the job, but his character was his undoing. And Clinton could be similiarly plagued.


Post a Comment

<< Home