Monday, October 30, 2006

Authoritive ELECTION PROJECTION 2006 Website Finds No Solid Gains For Democrats Likely

Despite all the popular press analysis that has all but proclaimed that the Democrats will be the big winners of next week's elections, the very authoritive ELECTION PROJECTION 2006 from Scott Elliot finds no great trend towards he Democrats based on a careful race by race formula and analysis that he uses. The also very authoritive RASMUSSEN REPORTS also relies on Scott Elliot and has a page devoted to his analysis. In 2004, both ELECTION PROJECTION and RASMUSSEN REPORTS were the two most accurate polling and projection sources. Exit polling from the major networks was far off and mistakenly proved a John Kerry win, while even the 50-48 margin of both ELECTION PROJECTION 2004 and RASMUSSEN was near dead-on by comparison.

ELECTION PROJECTION finds that while Democrats will gain up to 7 governorships, they will likely fall short in the Senate and may at this point only end up with three more Congress members than the Republicans, which is so close that a larger than expected GOP turnout could threaten any Democratic hopes of Congress control despite so much disatisfaction over the Republican Congress and George Bush.

The fact of the matter is that Democratic Party Chairman Howard Dean, who could not even get himself elected President in 2004 has failed to put together a unifying set of Democratic principles where many voters are very vague on what exactly Democrats really stand for. In addition Democratic "get out the vote efforts" are largely hit and miss local efforts that have missed millions of potential voters who could have voted Democratic had they been better groomed by Democrats. Many poor people who stand to lose Food Stamps or public health assistance program support could have been groomed to vote by Democrats to vote to prevent cutbacks to their needed services, but instead Democrats failed to take such opportunities ro garner potential voters. If Democrats lose again in what should be an easy election, then it is disorganization and a lazy effort not to even put the energy into something similar to the 1994 Republican's successful 1994 "Contract With America". If the Democrats manage to blow such an easy opportunity this year to gain control of Congress, which is seeming to be increasingly likely, then likely there will be another party shakeup of leadership and Howard Dean forced to step down. But it is pretty clear from the current polls that Democrats should be running far stronger than they actually are at this point. Democrats need to make a huge and successful "get out the vote effort" in the next week or more likely than not, fall short in this easy election. The best statistic put Democrats right on the cuff of victory or defeat, with almost no margin for error to control Congress. That's far short of where they should be at this point.


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