Saturday, July 15, 2006

Could Israel Bombing Iran's Nuclear Program Be Next?

Israel seems intent on making a case to the world community that far beyond both Hamas or Hezbollah, that it is both Syria and Iran that are ultimately responsible for a proxy war against Israel. This may prove a dangerous intent to prepare international sentiment to dampen the shock for military action against Iran's nuclear program or against Syria. This could blow the MidEast apart into a huge regional war.

So far the only positives in this conflict are that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan do tend to blame Hezbollah for creating frictional problems in the region. But sectarianism can partially explain this, as Hezbollah is a Shiite religious group whereas these other states tend to be Sunni Muslims.

But regardless whether or not the moderate Sunni Muslim states of the MidEast tend to oppose Israel in this action or not, the size and firepower of the Syrian and Iranian armies is more than enough to invite a very serious regional war. Syria has a big inventory of longer range missiles that could deliver chemical or biological warheads deep into Israel. And Iran has a massive conventional army. Yesterday, Iranian revolutionary Guard forces did serious damage to an Israeli wardhip with a drone explosive device. Despite some very modern warships, the fact that Iranian soldiers could damage an Israeli warship suggests that both Iran and Syria could transport fresh arms or troops into Lebanon from Syria.

If Iran and Syria choose to resupply Hezbollah through Syria, then Israel could be caught in a type of Vietnam, where it is difficult to stop new supply lines without triggering a huge regional war. If Israel tries to attack either Syria or Iran to stop these supply lines then a huge regional war is risked. If Syria or Iran would stage a huge conventional counterattack, then Israel could even resort to use of their nuclear weapons.

Israel has nuclear landmine trenches dug to stop hundreds of Syrian tanks from pouring in to Israel. But the use of so much nuclear weapons so close-in in the the MidEast is sometimes referred to as the "Samson Option". Samson in the Old Testament had no way out other than to use his great strength to bring down the entire palace that he was prisoner in on both himself and captors. This "scorched earth" military viewpoint that you destroy both yourself and your enemy both so that no one wins is very unsettling and fatalistic. It means if Israel cannot exist, then the MidEast cannot either. This is very disturbing.

Unfortunately the Bush White House seems to be in the business of defending Israel's actions instead of warning of the consequences of so much warfare that could lead to a huge regional war. We could soon be witnessing a nuclear war in the MidEast unless there is a serious attempt to prevent this war from expanding. Israel seems intend on blaming both Syria and Iran. Just how far that they intend to carry this is a very good question.

One Gaza businessman commented that Bill Clinton promotted peace in the MidEast unlike George Bush. He said he respected Bill Clinton and the American people, but that George Bush is nothing like Bill Clinton. That is to say the least, an understatement.


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