Thursday, July 13, 2006

World Geopolitical Events Are Spinning Out Of Control

For the last year, I have been offering some alarming features on dark clouds that I have seen collecting in geopolitical events. Now with the U.S. stuck with a foreign policy weak White House partially due to the tremendous harm done to American international clout as a result of the grossly failed policy of starting the 2003 war in Iraq, we have a real diplomacy power vaccuum. Mr. Bush continues to hold out hope for a diplomacy that the U.S. has less and less real involvement in. As serious as the current MidEast crisis is, any hope for less that a huge regional war is entirely pinned on a three man delegation from the U.N., who are likely to get only a polite response at best from the warring factions involved. Neither Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah or any others are likely to suddenly veer from their paths or positions as a result of this. And as serious as the North Korea missile incident is, inflaming a Japanese self-defensive passion not seen since WWII, once again the U.S. is not a major diplomacy player, and the only thing that prevents warfare breaking out between Japan and a North Korean response to a preemptive attack is a frail hope in China having some diplomatic pull.

Today oil prices have gone over $77 a barrel. And if Iran and Syria are drawn into a widening MidEastern conflict, then Iran has the power to shut off the entire MidEast oil supply by choking off the narrow Strait Of Hormuz. And Syria has many chemical warheads and rockets, and could attempt to poison gas Israel. Israel would respond with nuclear weapons such as their Star Of David missiles or nuclear landmines to stop Syrian tanks from advancing on their nation. Then things will get really interesting.

In many ways the failed Bush policy in Iraq has both created this crisis as well has prevented it from going into full blown war at the same time.

In response to the failed American war in Iraq, Iran's radicals were able to wrest away control from more reformist leadership. With radicals in control in Iran, both Iran and Syria have been emboldened to support both Hezbollah and Hamas radicalism. With a money and weapons trail that leads right up to the doors of both Iran and Syria, just how long before both become involved in this escalating situation is a very serious question. At this point, the war will become huge.

Israel has been emboldened bu so many U.S. troops in the region due to the Iraq War which has only encouraged their violence on one hand. But on the other hand both Iran and Syria have so far stayed out of this widening conflict with other than proxy support for Hamas and Hezbollah out of fear of the U.S. But how long this stands is a good question.

The world stands on the brink of huge regional wars in the MidEast and in Asia. The smaller unstable conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan now look suddenly less important. But how the majority Shiites in Iraq will feel about the Shiite Hezbollah elements facing continued conflict is another serious issue to ponder.

With so much geopolitical conflict at hand, even the Pentagon is making contigency plans if the situation continues to spin out of control. Pandora's Box has been opened when the current government of Israel lacked the restraint of former Prime Minister Sharon after his office ending serious stroke, and a new government with less military experience took power.

All of this witches brew of geopolitical events are more likely to grow worse than before they grow any better. Whether this leads to a huge regional war cannot be known at this point. But what is known is that there are more serious geopolitical events in the air currently than those that started WWII. There is a great need for both restraint and ceasefire by all sides. And prayer is very important as well. Very serious times are at hand unless these crisis points drawback.


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