Friday, March 14, 2008

Senator Obama Now Just 414 Delegates Short Of Victory

Senator Barack Obama is now just 414 delegates shy of the magic number of 2,025 delegates required to win the Democratic nomination at 1,611 estimated delegates, and is still the odds on favorite to capture the nomination. In the latest daily Rasmussen Poll he also holds a seven point lead among voters for the Democratic nomination over Clinton. Clinton is farther back with 1,480 estimated delegates and would need to capture 545 delegates to win the nomination. Although she is favored in the upcoming Pennsylvania contest, Clinton is still likely to lose in a number of upcoming contests such as Oregon and other states, which makes her quest virtually a mathematical impossibility to capture the nomination.

Clinton may have attempted to put a lot of "spin" on her popular vote wins in both Ohio and Texas, however both states fell far short of any broad delegate gains for Clinton. In Ohio she captured just 76 delegates compared to 69 for Obama, which is hardly any broad win. And in Texas, although she narrowly won the popular vote, her loss in the caucus actually gave her less total delegates than Obama. Clinton left Texas with 106 delegates compared to Obama's 109.

Senator Barack Obama is still in the driver's seat for the Democratic nomination with Clinton virtually too far behind to catch up unless some really big political earthquake should suddenly happen. If she loses or barely comes out ahead in delegates from Pennsyvania then her mission would be even more difficult. In fact, for the entire total of delegates awarded from the "miniSuper Tueday" contests of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, Clinton came out ahead by a mere 6 delegates, 208 to 202 for Obama, which is far short of any real big win needed.

Clinton may attempt to appear as a candidate on equal footing comparable to Obama. But the delegate total picture tells a whole different story. And some of the absurd racial nonsense coming from the Clinton campaign the last few days is most likely a sign of the frustration of some members of her campaign who realize the very difficult and most likely hopeless battle that she's involved in. Even if she manages a big win in Pennsylvania, it is still highly unlikely that she will capture the Democratic nomination. Clinton's back is certainly up against the wall right now. The delegate total math makes that most clear.