Sunday, November 19, 2006

U.S. May Seek Some Way To Get Dr. Ayad Allawi Back Into Power In Iraq

There appears to be a widespread view held in Washington that there is little way that Iraqi Prime Minister's Nouri al-Maliki's government can ever succeed in Iraq. This government is increasingly seen as ineffective at home in Iraq, and is seen by Washington as too deeply involved with corruption and dominated by Shia militia groups. More and more the name of Ayad Allawi is coming up as a viable and capable alternative. The only problem is how to corcumvent the failed experiment at Iraqi democracy and get Dr. Allawi into power. A short time aho I discusssed the possibility of a coup in Iraq. From behind the scenes, no doubt Washington is rethinking some scenarios by which Dr. Allawi can be brought into power, with or without the benefit of an election.

America's key to an exit of troops from Iraq is a stable government. A stable government can mean some relative peace to this sectarian strife torn state created by Winston Churchill shortly after WWI from three Muslim ethnic groups with nothing in common after oil was discovered in Iraq. With up to 220 billion barrels of undiscovered oil in Iraq, Iraq remains the most oil rich state in the world if peace and stability can be achieved there. The British effort after WWI and the latest American/British efforts are little more than old fashioned examples of colonialism, based on a search for oil assets in a backward part of the world. It would still serve every major purpose for someone who is seen as generally reliable and trustworthy such as former Baathist, Dr. Ayad Allawi to take up the leadership role in Iraq.

Allawi would have been the very best choice for Iraqi citizens to make in their first election, but with no tradition in democracy ever, and a widespread lack of literacy and education, it was the religious groups and militias that quickly were able to gain wide winning political strength over the far more capable and secular oriented Allawi. There is likely that a consensus is starting to build that in Washington as well as London that Allawi is the best way out for the military mess in Iraq, and the best shot at relative stability, reconstruction and the eventual oil industry of the U.S. and Britain to gain some control over Iraqi oil development. The oil industry would love to get back on this track by someone like Allawi providing stability to Ira, which means that democracy in Iraq may soon be pushed aside for at least some time to achieve this goal. This would mean that Iraq was simply not ready yet for democracy, with the failed election one prime reason why the Iraq situation has failed so badly.