Tuesday, August 09, 2005

Iran Pushes The Nuclear Envelope To A Dangerous Level

The International Atomic Energy Agency and the world community is alarmed that Iran has decided to push the nuclear envelope and introduce raw uranium at a facility in Isfahan, Iran. The next step is to break the seals the IAEA placed on the facility, and process the raw uranium into uranium hexafluoride and then enrich this into nuclear weapons fuel. And according to a informant from Iran, Alireza Jafarzadeh, Iran has constructed 4,000 centrifuges not declared to the IAEA to enrich uranium into nuclear weapons. Iran may be days away from the beginning of a crash nuclear arms program, where Iran may develop a number of nuclear arms within weeks once the IAEA seals are broken and enrichment into nuclear fuel is begun.

Many of my features on this website have hammered on this important issue over the last few months. The fact that Iran will force a serious military showdown and create a terrible world war most likely over their nuclear intentions or other serious issue is clearly warned of in Ezekiel 37-39. Ezekiel was a form of historian for the state of Israel. 2,600 hundred years ago his book of the Old Testament pointed out the enslavement of Judea and Sumaria, and the eventual re-establishment of modern Israel in late days, but a very serious war in which nuclear arms are used, results. Iran is called Persia in this book, yet all the facts appear to be in place with EU involvement in seeking a failed nuclear peace agreement with Iran (Persia) right before the situation worsens.

For a planned military attack on Iran set for July, it was thought by former UNSCOM arms inspector, Scott Ritter, that President Bush had already signed off on an millitary attack plan against Iranian research sites a few months earlier. But Israel, whose own intelligence services are among the world's very best, indicated that Iran had dug their nuclear research sites in so deeply that American designed bunker buster bombs could not surgically take out these sites. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon arrived at the White House with the head of Israeli military intelligence and laid out these problems to President Bush, which seemed to make a surgical military strike against the nuclear research sites of no real use. Bush then had to resort to pressure and diplomacy from the EU states of Britain, France and Germany, as the U.S. has no diplomatic ties to Iran, and no clout to prevent their nuclear enrichment plans . But Iran rejected the best EU proposal this weekend. Now Iran has pushed the envelope with the introduction of raw uranium at a site in which the IAEA seals may be soon broken, and the processing into weapons grade enriched uranium may be the next step. With help from the A.Q. Khan Research Laboratory of Pakistan, Iran can easily build such nuclear weapons. And with the help of North Korea, long range Nodong based conventional missiles from Iran, known as Shahab-3 missiles can hit portions of Europe and of course, Israel. And according to Benjamin Netanyahu, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, a few Russian scientists picked up a little extra money by supplying Iran missile technology secrets. Iran may seek to insulate itself against an attack like Iraq by the U.S. with nuclear missiles, yet by raising the nuclear stakes, Iran could also force such an attack by Israel or the U.S.

Israel is the most likely to act militarily against Iran, but only if such an effort would be effective. For some time Isreal's air force has practiced bombing missions in Turkish air space with an agreement between the U.S. and Turkey. And America has helped supply 5,000 "smart bombs" to Israel, including 500 uranium tipped bunker busters. But with the military intelligence of Israel indicating that Iran has dug their nuclear sites in so deeply, it appears a military option by Israel, the state most likely to react to Iran's nuclear program is very limited and not that likely to be very effective. The primary source of much information about Iran's nuclear program is the Mujahedin E-Khalq, a antiIranian terrorist organization that the Bush Administration has a ceasefire agreement with, and has been helpful to the CIA with military intelligence about Iran's nuclear program. Even Richard Perle, a member of the PNAC(Project For The New American Century) which included Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Cheney and Bolton, helped to support the MEK at a fundraiser event held in the U.S., as a sign that the Bush Administration closely relies on MEK as a quasi-ally for CIA and military intelligence needs.

This weekend, perhaps the most far right member of the Sharon government in Israel, Bejamin Netanyahu, resigned in anger over a pull-out from Gaza by settlers. Netanyahu would be the most likely member of the Israeli government to pull the trigger on Iran over any nuclear threat. Yet despite the fact that Netanyahu is gone, and the Iranian nuclear sites may too deeply dug in, still there is a reason to believe that Israel cannot and will not allow not any nuclear threat from Iran to exist. Israel attacked a reactor in Iraq over similar concerns. But with less good military options, yet a real security threat to little Israel, Israel may see themselves as forced to defend themselves as international diplomacy appear to look very toothless in their view.

Iran has a 3 million man military, and although it has far less military hardware than the U.S. or Israel, it still could force a dangerous reaction to any military strike by Israel. This huge army could invade into Iraq and attack the American forces and attempt to push on to invade Israel. which could force Irael into a nuclear launch against an invading Iranian army of millions. There are many scenarios that are unthinkable if Israel should attack Iran, and Iran respond militarily. And Iran could also choke off the entire supply of MidEast oil to punish the world or the U.S. by sinking a few junk ships in the narrowest portion of the Strait Of Hormuz.

Iran should rethink any decision to begin uranium enrichment. But they appear to totally disregard the opinions of the world community. Within days, unless Iran chooses to back down, this could be the beginning of the greatest conflict in the history of the planet. A nuclear Iran is unthinkable. But a huge war caused by this crisis is even more unthinkable.


At 6:12 AM, Blogger barty said...

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