New Analysis Has Obama Leading McCain By 353 To 185 In Electoral Votes
One of the best election analysis sites has to be Scott Elliot's ELECTION PROJECTION. And his latest analysis of the likely electoral vote breakdown has Senator Obama leading John McCain by crushing total of 353 to 185, far exceeding the 270 electoral votes needed for election.
Thurday's night's vice presidential debate is unlikely to help McCain very much even though Sarah Palin had a stronger than expected performance as most debate viewers still viewed Senator Biden as the winner of the debate and far more presidential. This is only likely to continue the Obama momentum towards a building electoral vote landslide and a strong and growing popular vote. More and more Senator Obama is viewed as both presidential and the likely winner by a growing number of voters.
McCain's only best hopes to turn around his shrinking presidential hopes seem to be in strong debate performances in the final two debates. But likely McCain's strongest opportunity was in the first debate with such heavy foreign policy content, and Senator Obama was able to hold up well enough with many voters as well as to clearly win the economic policy portion of the debate that McCain's best hope has probably already since passed away. Senator Obama only had to prove that he had a decent grasp of foreign policy and could be a credible choice, and certainly managed that in the debate.
Up until recently, the only state that John Kerry won in 2004 that Obama might have lost was New Hampshire. But new polls place this state over in Obama's column. In Addition, Obama is ahead in Iowa and New Mexico, two states that John Kerry lost in 2004, but Al Gore won in 2000.
But what is disastrous to McCain's fainting hopes of winning this election is that Senator Obama has a growing hope of winning in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and Ohio. Since 1964, Ohio has always voted for the winning presidential candidate, making it a true weathervane state.
What is probably most troubling to McCain is that his margin is way down is some reliability Republican leaning states like Indiana where McCain is barely running ahead. Missouri is another state on the bubble where McCain is only hanging on to a slender lead. Even in tiny normally Republican leaning states like Montana, McCain only has single digit leads, as is just barely hanging on to hopes of not losing the election by a massive electoral vote landslide where states that supported Bush in 2000 and 2004 abandon McCain in 2008.
The McCain Campaign will be hard pressed to spend money in a number of normally safe Republican strongholds just to hang on to those states. At the same time the Obama Campaign has the luxury to spend $40 million in attempts to win to take Florida, as well as to challenge in a number of stronger more traditionally Republican bases such as Virginia and Colorado. And any loss by McCain in North Carolina would only add to an election day electoral vote disaster. McCain needs a solid South to win the election, and the loss of either Virginia or North Carolina probably puts the White House out of reach for McCain. McCain simply cannot win the election if both Virginia and North Carolina slip away from him. There simply is not the electoral votes somewhere else to make up for that loss.
No doubt about it, the McCain Campaign is facing a rising tide of bad news. Sagging poll numbers, must win states slipping away, and a growing voter consensus that Barack Obama would make a better president than McCain. Unless something real unexpected develops to boost McCain, and soon, his hopes of being elected president in November are quickly fading away and turning into dust.