Friday, June 22, 2007

Hillary And Fred Thompson Have All The Momentum Right Now

Latest polls such as the very authoritive ones from Rasmussen Reports strongly suggest that both Hillary Clinton and Fred Thompson have all the momentum on their sides and are the two most likely candidates to grab their party's nominations next year.

With the huge frontloading of so many critical primaries in February of 2008, something akin to a form of national primary, both parties are nearly certain to have picked both candidates by late February.

Both John Edwards and Barack Obama had hoped to upend Hillary Clinton as well give voters somewhere to go that were not fans of her. Yet, with every debate appearance so strong, Clinton has been able to gain public strength in debate, proving herself to be the best candidate running for the Democratic nomination.

Fred Thompson is bouyed by another type of phenomenon. Republican voters are largely unhappy with the current group of candidates, giving Thompson some room to act as the choice of many party conservatives very unhappy with the choice of Giuliani, Romney and McCain. And while some like Romney have put in a huge workk-ethic effort so far, Thompson is not known for such a strong work ethic, and may not really be willing to put in the 110% effort required to win the election.

Hillary Clinton must overcome big voter dislike numbers, while Thompson needs to prove that he can work hard enough, as well as understand issues, and actually speak to the voter's needs. Hillary Clinton probably is the most electable in such an equation. But she needs to improve her voter trust numbers and continue to impress them as well as she has done so far among the two Democratic debates.

At this point, both Hillary Clinton and Fred Thompson appear to be the most likely to wrap things up. But many months remain, where either can easily falter with a serious misstep. Look at all the Giuliani problems so far, further compounded with the recent cocaine problems with his South Carolina Chairman this past week. Much can still happen. The final paragraph is far from being written on the 2008 campaign.


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