Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Iraq Policy Is Quickly Being Torn To Tatters

While the Bush Administration is attempting to hold the line for a policy of "stay the course" in Iraq. Political realities are quickly leaving this policy in tatters.

Yesterday, at an reconciliation conference held in Cairo, Egypt, Iraqi Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni leaders united on a proposal for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq on a timetable basis. Monday, Senator Joesph Biden, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, voiced some hard political realities at an event hosted by the Council On Foreign Relations. NBC's Brian Williams was the moderator at this event, in which Biden pointed out that National Guard or other units soon will likely be recalled from Iraq because otherwise their tour of duties would have to extend beyond 12 months. This is likely to fuel an American withdrawal of some troops soon. NBC's Adrea Mitchell spoke at an event Sunday on her reasoned position that many troops may be withdrawn in 2006, that despite Bush Administration claims of "staying the course", the Pentagon is actually drawing up plans for some troop withdrawals in 2006.

Where does this leave Iraq? The security situation is actually that there is simply not enough U.S. trrops in Iraq to provide security. U.S. troops rid an area near Lebanon of insurgents who filter over the border from Syria into Iraq, and once U.S. troops leave the area, villages are again reclaimed by insurgent forces. Iraqi forces are unable to keep insurgents out of these areas, and U.S. trrops are spread to thin to keep these insurgent forces out.

Likely in Iraq, either a corrupt leader like Ahmed Chalabi, who has his own militia, or another militia such as the Badr or Wolf Brigade militia will either control Iraq, and will wage a civil wat against the Sunni population in Iraq. Biden asked at the CFR event whether there is any American support for U.S. troops fighting a civil war on behalf of a Shiite militia against the Sunni population. Biden also described Iraq as a like "Lebanon on steroids". Lebanon was an unrulable security mess in which Reagan found peacekeeping duty too challenging, and withdrew American peacekeepers after terrorist attacks on U.S. Marine and French peacekeepers. Syria soon invaded and occupied much of Lebanon. Similarly, Iran could likely occupy much of Iraq if the U.S should exit soon. Iran could even attempt to create a near satellite state in Iraq, extend more control over the world oil supply in the Strait Of Hormuz, while continuing work on nuclear weapons. Iran will be able to launch it's first satellite very soon. One Iranian satellite aboard a Russian vehicle has already been launched.

There are many problems at home in the U.S. There is no American will for a long conflict or peacekeeping anywhere in the world. Americans have no patience for such situations. Iraq has become destabilized in an ill conceived war. But Iraq will soon likely be left on it's own to become a critical piece in a future MidEast that will soon experience far more anarchy and chaos and far more danger will result as Iran becomes more powerful and dangerous.

The U.S. did just enough harm with the Iraq War, and the soon resulting MidEast destabilization and then the failure to properly resolve the problems created there to create far more world danger for the near future. What can I say about that.


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