Saturday, August 13, 2005

Bush Raises The Possibility Of Military Action Against Iran

Speaking from his Crawford, Texas vacation site, in an interview with Israel's Channel 1, President Bush stated that "all options are on the table" in dealng with Iran. While Bush also claimed that "force" against Iran is a "last resort", similar language was used before the start of the war in Iraq. Usually such talk seems to indicate that a military option choice has already been decided. The public acknowledgement usually indicates that military planning has been underway, and military targets and options have been discussed at the Pentagon and White House.

In July, some like Scott Ritter, former UNSCOM arms inspector actually believed a military attack on Iran was planned and signed off on by Bush. But in a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister, Sharon and the head of Israeli military intelligence, new inteligence by the Israeli military clearly indicated that nuclear research sites in Iran had been dug into deep bunkers in many locations, and could not be reached by smart bomb "bunker busters" by either the Israeli or the United States Air Forces.

Iran presents three dangers for the United States: These range from the nuclear threat to both Israel and the U.S., the sending of terrorist insurgent fighters and supplies into Iraq, and the possibility of choking off the entire MidEast oil supply to the United States and the West, as Iran controls the very narrow Strait Of Hormuz, and could off this vital seaway, and prevent all oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain from reaching the U.S. or Western economies.

The Isfahan reactor in Iran is vulnerable to U.S. or Israeli attack, but intelligence claimed 4,000 centrifuges vital to enrichment of uranium into UF-6 gas needed for nuclear weapons conversionare in the deep bunkers. Any military attack on the reactor has a promise by Iran to attack Israel's Dimona reactor. This week, a top general in Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that Iran had improved their Shahab-3 missiles to a 2,000 kilometer range, after successful tests of a solid fuel motor in July. Previous Shahab-3 missiles only had a 1,300 kilometer range. And possible new GPS satellite controlled guidance systems now make the missiles accurate within one meter.

The Shahab-3 missiles are based on the North Korean Nodong missiles. However Iran has become skilled at producing and improving their own missiles and other military goods. With past help from the Pakistan's A.Q. Khan Research Labortory, Iran not doubt has both the knowledge and equipment required to produce nuclear weapons from enriched uranium. While some scientists in Israel believe that Iran's own nuclear weapons may take two years or longer to develop, it is unlikely that the U.S. will wait to to the last minute.

Just like the language surrounding Iraq, just before the start of the war there, an attack on Iran will probably be sudden and much sooner rather than later. But the possibility of a major war resulting from this military incident is very high. And the possibility of Iranian state sponsored terrorism in the U.S. would likely increase as well. Iran's 3 million man army will no doubt attempt to invade Isreal, and Israel may launch nuclear missiles to stop this assault and invasion. For the first time since WWII, nuclear war may again be a reality as Israel will attempt to thwart Iran's huge conventional forces army. Any military action against Iran will trigger a larger war in all likelyhood. And even though this unthinkable, a nuclear armed Iran is also unthinkable. No good military options actually exist. If diplomacy fails, the worst possible outcomes will be reality in this huge problem of Iran seeking to enrich uranium and defy the IAEA and the world community.


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