The Iranian Military Strength & The White House Masters Of Military Miscalculation
Because the Russian Federation has a very close relationship with Iran, and could very likely be their military ally if indeed Mr. Bush proceeds with war plans against Iran this June as is believed, the Russian military estimates of Iranian military strength may be the most accurate available. Unlike the weakened army of Saddam Hussein which lost most major weapons during the 1990-91 Gulf War, and nearly all but a few hidden longer range missile launchers, and was reduced down to a couple hundred thousand poorly equipped Republican Guard soldiers, a few helicopters, older Soviet aircraft and tanks, and a few light French and Brazilian arms, Iran by comparison has a far larger and more dangerous military. Their arms are less moderd than Israel or the U.S., and less effective. But their military is very large with around 3 million soldiers.
The Problem is that just in the same way that the Bush Administration totally miscalculated the long insurgent war after the easy defeat of Saddam's weak Republican Guard Army, a gross miscalculation of the strength of the Iranian forces to not only repel American and Israeli forces with some real possibility of serious material and man loss, as well as having the firces necessary to mount a huge invasion of Israel by a mass military flow of manpower on a variety of transports tearing through Iraq and Jordan. And the possibility that Russian Federation military forces may join the battle to attack both Israel with conventional and nuclear weapons and attack the mainland U.S. with nuclear weapons by land based mobile Scale Board launchers and by attack submarines. For all intents and purposes, the Bush war plans to attack Iran in June, most likely will trigger WWIII between the U.S. and the Russian Federation, and must be seen as another gross military miscalculation by Bush White House of a foreign policy of preemptive war in Iran that instead of securing American and Israeli security from a nuclear seeking Iran, could well create WWIII. Because of this, this probable attack on Iran is most ill advised. Diplomacy to rid Iran of this possible threat is the most viable outlet, as the military option should be ruled out due to the possibilitity of triggering an avalanche of new retailiation by Iran, and in a worse case scenario, The Russian Federation.
Iran's Infantry numbers are: 400,000 Regular Infantry, 250,000 Conscripts, 100,000 Revolutionary Guard, 2,000,000 Basee, 20,000 Marines, 1,000 Special Forces, 350,000 Reserves. By comparison American has only 147,000 soldiers in Iraq to repel this force that may attempt to surge to Israel to retailiate.
Iran has these other numbers of weapons systems according to Russian military estimates: Armor and Tanks: 578 T-72S, 60 Zulfquar-3, 110 T-62, 110 T-55, 150 M-60, 150 M47/48, 200 Chieftain, 220 Typ-59, 220 Typ-69.
IFV: 413 Bmp-2, 300 Bmp-1.
APC: 500 Btr-60, 80 Scorpion, 50 Towsan, 35 EE-3 Cascavel, 50 MT-LB, 200 M-113, 120 Boragh.
Artillery: Towed: 30 203mm M-115, 30 155mm G-5, 100 155mm GHN-45, 100 155mm M114, 30 152mm PRC, 800 130mm M-46/Type 59, 500 122mm D-30, 100 122mm Type 54/60, 200 105mm M101.
Artillery: Mobile: 30 203mm M110, 20 170mm Koksan M-1978, 25 175mm M107, 50 155mm Thunder-2, 50 155mm Thunder-1, 100 122mm 2S1.
Rocket Artillery: 50 240mm Fadjr-3, 50 230mm Oghab, 100 BM-21, 50 Hadid, 100 Type 63.
Anti-Aircraft: 30 Rapier, 14 MIM-23B, 10 SA-2, 4 SA-5, 100 S-60, 70 L-70, 21 M1, 100 GDF, 700 23mm ZSU-23-4.
Mobile Anti-Aircraft: 3 S-300, 20 SA-6, 100 57mm ZSU-57-2, 70 23mm ZSU-23-4, 3 Vosper, 10 Kaman, 3 Parvin, 6 Peykaap, 3 Tir, 5 Taedong C.
Corvettes: 2 Bayandor.
Missile Boats: 40 Hudong, 7 Houxin.
Attack Submarines: 3 Kilo.
Troop Ships: 4 Chavoush, 3 Hormuz-24, 3 Hormuz-21.
Other Naval Ships: 1 Riazi-Mine Layer.
Attack Aircraft: 35 MIG-29MK, 12MIG-23BN, 23Su-22M, 25 F-14A, 30 F-4E, 45 F-5B, 24 F-7M.
Fighter Bomber: 7 Su-25K , 23 Su-24, 10 Mirage F1.
Naval Aircraft: 3 P-3, 10 SH-53.
Transport Aircraft: 5 RC-130, 2 Commander 690, 13 Falcon 20, 1 Fokker F-28, 1 IAMI Iran 140, 14 Y-7, 10 F-27, 12 AN-74, 12IL-76, 22 C-130, 2 Boeing 727, 14 Boeing 707.
Recon Aircraft: 30 TU-22, 12TU-16, 2 AN-12, , 30 SU-17, 12 SU-24.
Assorted Military Aircraft: 6 MIG-29UB, 7 T-33, 5 FT-7, 5 RF-5, 8 RF-4 Trainer.
Helicopters: Attack Helicopters: 70 AH-1.
Transport Helicopters: 45 Mi-17, 20 IAR-330 Puma, 40 AB-206, 50 AB-205, 70 AB 214, 3 Hughes 300, 10 SA-319, 35CH-47, 24 IAR-317.
These figures illustrate a military far stronger than the weakened Saddam Hussein military that was defeated within days. And while the figures also illustrate some real vulnerabilities of the Iranian military, they also illustrate more than enough strength to mount a major convoy into Iraq to attack the 147,000 American soldiers there and to push onto a full scale invasion of Israel. In order to repel such an attack, Israel would have to resort to launching land and sea based Star Of David, or other nuclear weapons. American soldiers in Iraq may well be killed in mass numbers as a result of the estimated 130 nuclear warheads that Israel could launch to repel the attacking Iranian Army.
And Iran already claims some methods by which American aircraft carriers could be destroyed by suicide aircraft and other attacks. Since the days of the 1980's war between Iran and Iraq, the Iranian military has modernized. And some defenses such as S-300 could detect American or Israeli aircraft about 700km from the defense system.
The Bush White House has proven to masters of military miscalculation. The forces sent into Iraq with lightly armored Humvees serving as police vehicles that are easy prey for roadside bombs compared to much more armored and superior M113 GAVINs of the Vietnam War prove that Donald Rumsfeld cannot plan for a war beyond a quick effort like the "shock and awe" war against Iraq. Given this history of military miscalculations, as well as the warnings of Old Testament Prophet Ezekiel who accurately described such a war with descriptions of helicopters and nuclear weapons, it is far more likely than not that this proposed attack on Iran set for June will probably be the start of WWIII. This is very unfortunate. It is a very good time for diplomacy to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms. But any attack could trigger Iran purchasing a device or two in Macaa from North Korean agents and they could hide such a device in a container ship, and explode it in a major port such as in LA or Seattle, or Portland, and kill 100,000 here with such an act of possible retailation.
The possibility of the cycle of violence that could take place would be too horrible to imagine. But the pages of the Old Testament book of the Prophet Ezekiel clearly paint a vision of major human carnage. There is a major need for prayer right now. The Bush Administration is on the verge of the biggest military miscalculation ever if they attempt to respond to the nuclear arms threat of Iran. And North Korea may act irrationally, and could launch against West Coast cities in fear of pending regime change from Bush. The time for cool heads and diplomacy and prayer are greatly needed. Iran must not acquire nuclear arms. But this Bush plan only will promote a worse case scenario. The military option purported tohave been approved by Bush is no option at all. It's simply a suicidal doomsday ploy for a massive war in the MidEast and sucking in much of the world. The world needs to heed the warning of the Prophet of God, Ezekiel before the genie cannot be put back into the bottle once war starts.