Friday, February 17, 2006

McCain Leads Clinton In Most Of New England According To A New Poll

Some new polls conducted by American Research Group point to a serious problem for Hillary Clinton, she trails John McCain in five of six New England states. McCain holds a 46-42% lead in the sometimes swing state of Maine. In normally slightly Republican New Hampshire, McCain leads Clinton by a wide 52-32%. In slightly Republican leaning Vermont, McCain leads Clinton by 47-38%. But in normally strongly Democratic Massachusetts, McCain leads by 48-39%, and also leads in widely Democratic Rhode Island by 44-40%. Only in Connecticut, is Hillary Clinton able to spill over her strong support in New York and lead by 49-39%.

It is also likely at this point that Hillary Clinton would only be able to win in New York, the District Of Columbia, and Connecticut and likely lose all the other states to John McCain. Only California might be a close possibility to break for Hillary Clinton. This is bad news for any Democratic hopes of Hillary Clinton to retake the White House for the Democrats in 2008.

The only good news for Democrats is that John McCain does not lead in the Republican polls. It is Rudolph Giuliani that leads McCain by a 43-39% margin in the lastest CNN-Gallop Poll. However it seems unlikely that either Rudolph Giuliani or John McCain would be likely to become the Republican nominees.

Harriet Miers, was taken down by the right wing of the Republican Party because of a seen wavering prolife support, in favor of the harder right, more sure fire prolife, Sam Alito. It seems unlikely the prochoice Giuliani would win the nomination of a party increasingly dominated by right wing activists and voters. And John McCain is also viewed with a greatly suspect view by the right wing of the Republican Party. It is more likely a candidate from the right would emerge to win the Republican nomination.

This sets up an interesting match-up. Hillary Clinton may be the candidate most likely to win the Democratic nomination, but also the most likely loser. John Kerry came close to winning in 2004 with 48% of the vote, but the campaign exposed to many weaknesses for Kerry as a campaigner as well as dull personality traits many voters did not like. Kerry may run stronger than Clinton if he won the Democratic nomination, but is unlikely to since he trails Clinton at 15-39% in the latest CNN-Gallop Poll. Kerry would likely run weaker in 2008 than in 2004, although may lose to a Republican nominee by less votes than Hillary Clinton in a general election match-up with a Republican candidate. The last successful Democratic Presidents were Southern Governors Clinton of Arkansas and Carter of Georgia. Both won because they carried some Southern states as well as Ohio. No Republican has been elected President that I know of that has failed to win Ohio. Likewise, no recent Democrat has won the White House without being able to win Ohio.

So the problem for Republicans is their strongest candidates, both Giuliani and McCain have problems winning the nomination because of problems in their Republican base, while Democrats have no candidate likely to win the general election with Clinton, Kerry, Edwards or some others unlikely to carry enough states to win the general election. 2008 is going to be interesting, and another potential heartbreak to Democrats at this point unless the political landscape changes between now and 2008.


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