Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Iran Quickly Closing The Window To Avoid Military Conflict With Israel

No one can ever accuse Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of being a skillful or wise politician. And his dumb and racist anti-Israel rant at the UN conference on racism in Geneva was a pretty good example of Ahmadinejad at his very worst. Today, Iran sought to further raise tensions with Israel by threatening them with military action if Israel should attack nuclear sites in Iran. Some military reports claim that Israel has acquired special aircraft and weapons and is involved in training efforts to hit a number of Iranian nuclear program sites. Also today, in Tehran, a large crowd welcomed back the Iranian President today with shouts of "Death To Israel".

The fact of the matter is that President Obama's Administration has laid out something of an olive branch to Iran to act more cooperative about better relations with the world community to avoid a future military confrontation with Israel over their nuclear program. The U.S. was quietly hoping that Iran would want to better join the world community and avoid this possible military conflict with Israel. But Iran does little but fan the flames for a future military battle with Israel where the Iranian President's UN speech only serves to spur hawks within the Israeli government to justify military action against the Iranian nuclear program.

Israeli bombers have already gotten some precise bombing practice when they had to hit Gaza arms smuggling tunnels recently. However, it is pretty unclear how Israel hopes to strike some Iranian nuclear program sites buried in 75 foot deep bunkers without using nuclear weapons themselves. Israel isn't really know to possess deep bunker buster military technology of the sort really needed to precisely hit just the Iranian targets.

The Obama Administration is highly unlikely to give the Israeli military the "green light" to proceed with military action against Iran. However, that likely means that Israel might just chose to act on their own at some point. And if Israel is unable to be successful in efforts to control the large Iranian military, then Israel could leave the United States with a major mess to clean up. These are all problems that the Obama Administration would sure like to avoid. However, when Iran only continues to fan conflict with Israel rather than join the world community concern's about their nuclear program, then the worst possible outcome, war, might be the most likely outcome.

The Obama Administration could potentially face a huge foreign policy crisis here unless they can successfully defuse this recent new heightening of tensions between Israel and Iran.


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