Monday, June 30, 2008

The Illogical Bush-McCain Policy Towards Iran

It's certainly disturbing news that Congress approved a $400 million dollar budget for the U.S. to pay for more covert action within Iran. And it's certainly disturbing news that the absurd shared foreign policy of Bush and McCain is built on conflict rather than diplomacy with Iehran. Just last week, the destruction of the nuclear plant silo by North Korea was ample evidence that diplomacy even with one of the world's worst regimes can yield some real results. Yet the shared Bush-McCain foreign policy towards Tehran continues to support stepped-up covert action against Iran, largely at the hands of extremely unreliable MEK(Mujahedin-e-Khalq) terrorists.

Both Congress and shared foreign policy vision of Bush-McCain somehow continues to hold faith that the extremist Marxist cult of terrorist leader Maryam Rajavi somehow has the power to destabilize the revolutionary Shiite religious government of Iran. However, this is very unlikely for many good reasons. The extremist Marxist cult terrorists associated with Maryam Rajavi were actually part of the revolutionaries who helped to overthrow the government of the Shah of Iran with the Islamic student revolution of 1979 and held Americans hostage at the U.S. Embassy for 444 days. It was only over time that these radical Marxists politically broke with the revolutionary religious government of Iran, and began a terrorist campaign to install a revolutionary Marxist government in Iran. Why Congress and the shared Bush-McCain foreign policy supports Marxist terrorists who are hell-bent on establishing a radical Communist government in Iran is a good question. But it simply proves how directionless the shared Bush-McCain foreign policy towards Iran really is.

The fact of the matter is that both the Marxist cult of the MEK as well the Islamic religious government of Iran are probably so far out of step with most persons in Iran, that neither really has all that much deep public support. With the surging oil economy in Iran, a whole new class of wealthy Iranian oil economy billionaires are rising up. In fact a huge new Donald Trump condominium project that is being built in Dubai has already taken most reservations from either Russian or Iranian oil billionaires. This new class of wealthy Iranians are probably one of the strongest and most powerful forces to eventually establish some sort of political opposition party or force to challenge the religious government of Iran with some sort of self-serving capitalist political party similar in nature to the same sort party that represents Putin in Russia and holds a monopoly on power there. Putin's party stays in power because wealthy Russian business interests are behind it. A future Iranian political party built on the same economic power is more than likely at some point. If anything this only marks a return to old oligarchy system under the Shah of Iran, where the powerful hold the ultimate power in Iranian society.

The rise of Iranian oil capitalists are certainly the most powerful force within Iran, and almost certainly where true opposition to the current revolutionary Islamic government in Iran will come from. Iranian business with Iraq for example already tops $2 billion a year, and could climb to $10 billion a year within 10 years. Iran not only exports everything from food all the way to appliances into Iraq, but Iranian oil interests have already begun some work to develop more oil in Iraq from undiscovered oil fields of which Iraq holds up to 228 billion barrels of suspected undiscovered oil, perhaps the most of any nation in the world. Iranian business related visits into Iraq may already top over 100,000 cross border visits per year. Iran is Iraq's most important trade partner, not the U.S.

Instead of the the Bush-McCain foreign policy accepting the reality that the rise of oil capitalists and a powerful merchant class within Iran are beginning to wield some real economic power, the shared Bush-McCain policy towards Iran continues to support small bands of Marxist terrorists who have not proven any real political support among most persons in Iran. Other than providing some claimed "intelligence" information to the U.S. government about the Iranian nuclear program, the MEK terrorists haven't really had any real constructive contributions of any sort. Terrorism like bombings or assassinations of public officials within Iran certainly haven't helped to garner MEK more public support or sympathy within Iran. And no doubt the rising class of Iranian billionaires would crush MEK once they have any real political power to do so as well.

The Barack Obama approach to deal with the current government in Iran with diplomacy is far more realistic. And the American public also needs to understand that with a huge population of younger persons in Iran as well as the rising capitalist class, that there is a real desire for political and social change among many in Iran. Just like China, where capitalism is changing the system slowly but surely there, capitalism is changing Iran as long as the deeply misguided Bush-McCain war-mongering approach to Iran doesn't get in the way of internal change there. The U.S. can't really do anything constructive to change the government of Iran. Change will come from within.


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