Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Sagging Poll Numbers For Bush May Drive A Withdrawal Of Some Troops From Iraq

While Bush has made every effort to oppose an early withdrawal from Iraq, now it appears that a politically driven effort by Bush may result in a withdrawal of some troops as a desperate attempt to improve the sagging poll numbers for Bush.

It is rumored that when a top level official from Iraq visits the U.S. today, this plan to reduce some American troops may be discussed, and possiby acted on within a few weeks. Yet every indication is that the war is far from won in Iraq, where even today a major military offensive is taking place. And while insurgent attacks are hardly letting up, in October the Sunni minority is likely to vote down the constitution.

Iraq could even be facing civil war due to the constitution, which has angered the Sunni minority. And Iran, Syria or other states, or terrorists may take a partial American troop withdrawal as a signal to increase their efforts to undermine the government of Iraq. The new Iraqi army and police are not yet able to stand on their own, so any decision of a partial withdrawal is that solely of Bush, and flies in the face of the previous stated goals of the Iraq mission by Bush.

But these states have already withdrawn troops from Iraq: Nicaragua, Spain, Dominican Republic, Honduras, Philippines, Thailand, New Zealand, Tonga, Hungary, Portugal and Moldova.

These states will withdrawal their forces this year: Poland, Bulgaria and Ukraine.

These states have reduced their forces in Iraq: Norway, Italy and Netherlands.

While these other nations efforts in the coalition are largely that of noncombat use, yet the trend is clear. Iraq is a political liability and many nations including the U.S. may be looking for a way out of Iraq, even if the role is not completed, and Iraq is now very insecure and prone to the political and military goals of the militias, insurgents, Iran, Syria or any others who look for an opening to secure a foothold in Iraq.


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