Wednesday, June 29, 2005

Mission Accomplished Part 2

It had all the makings to be another bad sequel. Amid a military backdrop, it could have just as easily been the orchestrated pep rally that "Mission Accomplished Part 1" was. The media was wary, and questioned whether it was an event suitable for airing in primetime. But the silly overly premature "Mission Accomplished" banner was missing. The aircraft flight suit was missing. And only one applause break by the military broke up the speech content. The delivery was strong by Bush standards as well. It was better than expected.

So what was wrong with it? Well the content for one thing.

What started as a "necessary" by Bush standards, war to rid Saddam Hussein's Iraq of weapons of mass destruction which did not exist, unless you count one old mustard gas shell and evidence of one old sarin shell, has now evolved into a "War On Terrorism" in Iraq, now linked to 9/11 in a roundabout sense of Bush reasoning. But there's a few problems with this latest evolving definition of this disasterous Bush war. Only since America has begun the occupation of Iraq, has it now become the magnet for foreign insurgents from most MidEast and some Northern Africa states.

Iraq has become an example of self-fulfilling prophecy. The fears of Iraq becoming a state where Al Qaeda or other terrorists could gain control is now closer than ever as more and more populations of Islamic fundamentalists become inflamed at the American Western presence in Iraq and train and arm in numerous nations and pour through Iraq's unsecured borders and battle Americans and a government they see as a Western tool. To the Islamic mind of some fundamentalists, even a Western style fast food business is a sign of immoral Western decadence on holy Islamic soil. The continued American presense only acts as a catalyst for more of this insurgency. The while cycle feeds on itself, and self perpetuates itself.

And the American argument that is fighting a "War On Terrorism" has a disgeniune ring. The truth is that America only opposes the terrorists it opposes, and supports the terrorists it supports to further it's foreign policy goals. During the invasion of Iraq, America at first bombed bases of the antiIranian government MEK(Mujahedin-e Khalq), but soon signed a ceasefire with this terrorist organization and now even allows fundraisers held in America to support MEK terrorist activities including bombings that kill innocent Iranian civilians. And at a fundraising event sponsored by an MEK front organization, Bush Administration allied, Richard Perle acted as the keynote address speaker, with MEK terrorist organization leader, Maryam Rajavi also addressing the event by videophone from Paris.

Officially the U.S. State Department classifies the MEK as a terrorist organization. But this is only for official purposes. Unofficially this organization serves CIA intelligence purposes as acting as the leading source of intelligence on the Iranian nuclear research program. This nuclear program is a legitimate source of concern in the region. There is no way that Iran actually needs nuclear power to satisfy their energy needs, as Iran is one of the world's most oil rich nations. This is merely a ruse to develop enough weapons grade nuclear material to spin off some nuclear weapons.


The nuclear weapons will serve two important purposes for Iran. One is the deeply held Islamic fundamentalist hate for Israel. As late as December, Iranian Islamic cleric, Akban Hashemi Rafsanjani was noted giving an address in a Tehran Mosque in which he called for Islamic states to acquire nuclear weapons to demolish Israel. Rafsanjani was actually considered the "moderate" in the losing runoff bid to rule Iran. The ultraconservative mayor of Tehran is a true radical by comparison, and Iran's nuclear threat will be given fast track status by this political and religious extremist.

A second goal of Iranian nuclear weapons is to blunt any attempt by America to invade Iran and overthrow the government like that of the far weaker Iraq. But Iran is a far larger nation, with a 3 million man army. And millions of more conscripts could be called into combat within days to weeks. This would be an army comparable to WWII Germany in manpower numbers, with the U.S. the sole combatant against. And while Iran is heavily outmatched with the better equipped U.S. military, it could still hold some early advantages in a war with the United States.

Iran could easily sink a number of junk ships in the Strait Of Hormuz and cut off all oil supplies to the United States from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Within weeks, the American economy would come to a grinding halt as America would have a third to 50% less oil. Industries would shut down. Gasoline would be rationed, and jump to $8 to $12 a gallon, for the few nonmilitary supplies that would be still available.

Iran could also use suicide air and sea missions to damage or sink American aircraft carriers, or attack the aircraft carriers with antiship missiles supplied by China. Some of these may even use GPS tracking technology to use Chinese, Russian or even America's own satellites to track our ships effectively with these dangerous antiship missiles. Without effective aircraft cover, Iran could send much of it's 3 million man army to challenge America's far smaller 135,000 man force in Iraq, and inflict heavy losses on our soldiers by the overwelming force, and take thousands of American soldiers and reconstruction workers prisoner and hold them hostage in Iran in an attempt to stage a second hostage crisis to squeeze concessions from America.

In another posibility, Iran could attempt to push through Iraq and Jordan to attack Israel. Israel could turn Jordan and Iraq into massive nuclear battlefields with their estimated 200 nuclear land and sea based nuclear weapons. This could leave many Americans in Iraq caught in a nuclear crossfire.

The situation of the American covert support for the terrorist MEK has already started such a conflict with Iran by proxy. The terrorist leader Zaqawi is for all intents and purposes, an agent of Iran in this proxy war. And his forces not only challenge American forces, and the government of Iraq seen as a Western puppet, and the MEK forces in Eastern Iraq. This is only one foreign fighter group challenging American forces. In the Western part of Iraq, forces from terrorist camps in Saudi Arabia , Sudan, Algeria, Somalia and other states invade Iraq and challenge American soldiers.

With no plan from the Bush Administration to stop the terrorist camps, recruiting or fundraising by Islamic terrorists in so many Muslim states, where poverty stricken populaces freely join up in a religious crusade to free Islamic lands of Western influence, America cannot hope to win the battle against terrorists. The problem will be never ending, and puts the homeland security of the U.S. at extreme risk as Islamic terrorists are becoming more and more organized in so many nations. And with American covert support for the terrorist MEK, Iran will respond with more and more foreign fighters as well. One Iranian terrorist organization has a goal of training and funding one million foreign fighters to attack both American soldiers and Israel.

Bush simply did not state just how bad of a situation that America faces in Iraq. Without any plans to prevent a number of states from sending fresh foreign fighters into Iraq, the Bush Administration really has no plans for a military victory in Iraq. The only hope is that the people of Iraq will be able to defend their own country so America can leave and stop acting as a magnet for more terrorism. But like the failed Vietnamization of the Vietnam War, this appears to be a failure so far. In the current new large scale military mision by American soldiers, the sixth in several weeks, American reporters could not find even a single Iraqi soldier involved. In most combat, America is simply stuck with all the risk. America is in a deep mess in Iraq. Far worse than the comparably "rosy" outlook for eventual victory Bush has painted in his address. And Congress even approved $500 million for permanent American military bases a month ago, expecting no soon end to hostilities. There are no realistic plans for a military victory in Iraq, nor are there plans to defeat insurgent and terrorist bases all over the MidEast. And there are no plans for cooperation of states such as Saudi Arabia, despite all the oil America purchases to be used as leverage to force Saudi Arabian help. Sooner or later the Bush military plans in the MidEast will completely fail unless all states including the U.S. get serious to stop all terrorist support, camps and fundraising. The "War On Terrorism" simply cannot be won playing by the current set of rules.

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