First Quarter Campaign Donations Become The First Primary

For all intents and purposes, the first quarter cash donation reports have become the first primary, probably spelling the beginning of the end for many candidates, while cementing others as the top tier candidates.

John McCain's campaign is probably nearly entering an effective end with his lagging polling strength compared to Giuliani, and now his anemic cash donations will probably be the handwriting on the wall to virtually end his campaign as going nowhere and effectively dead in the water. All of this should begin to dry up his new cash, as voters look towards either Romney or Giuliani as the only alternatives. Both Giuliani and Romney leave the first reporting period in a greatly enhanced form due to their very positive cash donation reports.

Two other possible Republican candidates like Tommy Thomson and Fred Thompson are also real longshots, and unlikely in the end to really ignite sentiment enough to win the race in the end, either with fundraising or votes. Donations to other also ran candidates are basicly just throwing away money now, and a vote later.

On the Democratic side, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama emerge as the top tier candidates, with Edwards probably able to hang around as a possible third choice should Obama falter as the antiHillary candidate for many Democratic voters. Both Obama and Edwards display a stronger electability factor than Clinton, and face up far more favorably with Giuliani in the polling matchups. Edwards probably comes the closest to being a traditional style candidate for the Democrats, however he was hurt by being a near nonfactor as a running mate for John Kerry in 2004. Only after the recent cancer publicity involving his wife has Edwards received a second look by many voters, otherwise the race would have really been between Clinton and Obama. Other candidates like Biden are longshot virtual nonfactors in the race.